The BJP’s recent triumph in the Delhi Assembly elections has given the party a renewed sense of optimism as it prepares for the high-stakes battle in Bihar’s state elections. With the slogan, “Dilli ki jeet hamari hai, ab Bihar ki baari hai” (Delhi is ours, now Bihar’s turn), the BJP’s Bihar unit in Patna is brimming with enthusiasm. However, while this win has inspired the party, Bihar’s political complexities demand more than celebratory slogans.
A Long Road Ahead in Bihar
Bihar has been a challenging battleground for the BJP compared to other northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, where the party has established dominance. Leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have cemented their influence in Bihar with caste-based vote banks and grassroots mobilization.
Despite these challenges, the BJP’s progress in Bihar has been steady:
- In the 2005 Assembly elections, its vote share stood at 10.97%.
- By 2015, this figure more than doubled to 24.42%.
- Although it dipped to 19.46% in 2020, this was due to the party contesting fewer seats.
In Lok Sabha elections, the party’s vote share rose from 14.57% in 2004 to 29.86% in 2014 when it contested solo. However, the 2019 elections saw a slight dip to 22.52%, signaling the difficulties in maintaining momentum.
Structural Challenges in Bihar
While the Delhi victory has boosted morale, Bihar’s coalition politics presents significant hurdles. Unlike other states where the BJP can operate independently, in Bihar, its alliance with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is pivotal. Nitish’s 12 Lok Sabha MPs are crucial for maintaining the NDA’s strength at the national level.
Alienating Nitish is a risk the BJP cannot afford, forcing the party to tread carefully. This dynamic highlights why Bihar remains a marathon for the BJP, requiring strategic moves rather than quick wins.
Leadership Void Post-Sushil Modi
A major setback for the BJP in Bihar is the absence of a towering leader. The death of Sushil Modi last year has left a leadership vacuum. While leaders like Vijay Sinha, Samrat Choudhary, and Nityanand Rai have stepped up, they lack the widespread appeal of Nitish Kumar or Tejashwi Yadav.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath has emerged as a strong unifying figure, or Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP’s organizational structure is robust, the party in Bihar appears fragmented.
Can Delhi’s Momentum Convert Into Bihar Votes?
The BJP’s Delhi victory offers a psychological advantage. Its appeal among migrants from Bihar living in Delhi could create ripple effects back home, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
The NDA has set an ambitious goal of winning 225+ seats in Bihar’s 243-member assembly, but the state’s electorate has historically preferred regional affiliations and caste dynamics. The BJP faces two critical challenges:
- Countering the socialist opposition led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad.
- Maintaining harmony within its coalition with the JD(U).
Key Takeaway: A Marathon, Not a Sprint
The Delhi elections have provided the BJP with a morale boost, but the road to Patna remains uncertain. The BJP must strike a balance between asserting its own identity and preserving its fragile coalition with Nitish Kumar.
Much like a game of chess, every move in Bihar’s political landscape must be calculated. Lessons from Delhi should serve as both inspiration and caution for the BJP as it strategizes for the upcoming Bihar elections.
For now, the BJP basks in the afterglow of its Delhi success, but Bihar’s turbulent political waters demand careful navigation and measured planning.
